The Israeli political-security establishment is increasingly
concerned at what seems to be an American desire to reach a deal with Iran
regardless of the price. To make matters worse, even those who oppose
publically clashing with the Americans say that de facto, contact between the
policy makers in Obama's White House and Jerusalem has been effectively cut
off.
There are of course formal communications between Washington
and Israeli leaders, but Israeli officials believe that in the situation born
out of the post-Geneva agreement, Israel has pretty much lost its ability to
influence Obama regarding Iran and other international issues.
Finance Minister Yair Lapid said Monday that the US is and
remains Israel's most "strategic asset," but some in Jerusalem are
singing a different song; they have no problem openly saying that Obama is
leading the region towards a catastrophe.
The way things look from Israel now, the assumption is that
Obama has fortified himself behind a small and closed ideological circle. This
circle believes in partial non-interventionism and has an aversion to
international conflicts – not only in the Middle East but also in South East
Asia. In regards to Iran, this circle believes in pursuing a permanent deal
that allows Iran to reach the nuclear threshold, while containing the nuclear
program in such a way that will bar Iran from ever crossing the threshold or
attaining a nuclear weapon without the West noticing.
In Israel, officials say that if this outline becomes a
reality, then it would be nothing short of a disaster for Israel. It would mean
Iran will be three months away from creating the material it needs for a first
nuclear bomb.
Nonetheless, officials will admit that as far as they know
there has been no real progress in Iran's "arms group" – the group
which develops the prototype for the Iran's nuclear centers and then its
warheads.
Not the same US
In Israel there are those that believe that Obama's
administration is eager – if not to say anxious – to reach an agreement, maybe
even more than the Iranians who are suffering because of the massive sanctions
enacted against them.
Jerusalem believes that the American desire to reach an
agreement originates from Obama's inner circle which wants the administration
to survive the next three years without conflict. The prevalent assessment – in
both Jerusalem and other Mideast capitals – is that members of Obama's inner
circle stem from the left wing of the Democratic Party and believes that the
Iraq and Afghanistan have tired the US public from bloodshed, and is thus interested
in an administration that will focus on domestic issues like economic and
social policy.
So, in an attempt to secure another presidential term for
the Democrats in 2016 they want the US to be free of new international
entanglements. As a result, Western officials believe, the US has lost its
ability to efficiently conduct diplomacy as well as its ability to undertake
clandestine operations, like assisting certain groups among the Syrian rebels.
Accordingly the US has shifted from the leading regional
superpower in the Mideast – as well as most of the world – to a force
"leading from behind." In other words, the US has moved aside and now
allows other nations to lead the handling of international crises, like the
French-led efforts in Libya and Russian management of the Syrian crisis.
By the way, not so long ago there were those in Israel who
called on the White House to coordinate its positions with Russia in a bid to
bring about a viable peace in Syria's civil war. The White House thought well
of the idea but for any number of reasons it failed to actualize. The result is
now known to everyone: Russian President Vladimir Putin forced Obama into
accepting the Russian solution for Syrian chemical disbarment.
Nonetheless, Israeli officials note that the deal eventually
reached in regards to Syria is positive, and seems to be implemented according
to plans. However, the deal offers Syrian President Bashar Assad a new air of
legitimacy, proof that the deal is in fact being carried out as agreed.
Israel's demands
So what are Israel's demands in regards to a final agreement
with Iran?
Jerusalem does not want Iran to remain a hop, scotch, and a
leap from nuclear capabilities but rather they want Iran completely stripped of
its ability to enrich uranium and to create plutonium. Israel's minimum demand
is that any agreement will push Iran's nuclear program at least two or three
years back.
Israel's diplomatic-security establishment feels that the
current agreement does not take into account the Israeli position, and on the
basis of this feeling the Israeli establishment has decided not to compromise
on a number of key points and is adamant in its determination to prevent the
interim agreement from turning into a permanent one.
For example, Israel wants any future and final deal to
address the issue of the "arms group." This means that unlike the
interim agreement, the final one will set up a number of mechanisms for making
sure that the Iranians will not develop a nuclear detonation center nor build
warheads or bombs that can be air-dropped. In addition, Israel is demanding
that the US pressure Iran into promising it will halt its terror funding
activities.
Confidence crisis peaking
Jerusalem and other Mideast states feel that as a result of
the Geneva agreement and the events leading up to it, especially what has been
characterized as Iranian President Hassan Rohani and Foreign Minister Javed
Zarif's 'charm offensive', Iran managed to pull itself out of international
isolation and is now gaining more and more influence in the region.
The most immediate winner of this process is the axis of
radical Shiites, which as Iran's proxy are also gaining power at the expense of
the Sunni bloc lead by Saudi Arabia, which bridges between Gulf States, Turkey
and Egypt.
In addition, the relief in sanctions has led economic forces
in Europe and Asia to compete for future arms contracts with Iran. The feeling
in Jerusalem is that the dam has been broken and the way for Iran to
circumnavigate sanctions in the future has been paved. Even now, the Turkish
Finance Ministry has authorized financial interactions with Iran.
From Israel's perspective, all these issues must be
addressed in the final comprehensive deal, but decision makers in Jerusalem and
army leaders in Tel Aviv are pessimistic, because of what they call
Washington's deaf ear.
Obama did invite Netanyahu together with a delegation of
Israeli specialists to advise the US on future negations with Iran, and the
group has yet to take off to the US, hinting that everything is still
supposedly in the open. However the feeling is that when push comes to shove
Israel will have to deal with an Iran that is on the US-sanctioned nuclear
threshold – at least until Khamenei decides to move forward.
A crisis of confidence of this magnitude has not been felt
between the two nations for over two decades, at least since George H. W. Bush
suspended US aid because of Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir's expansive
settlement policy.
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